What you don't consider is that you will not be able to sell your Larran loot for the 100% value. Abdul will buy it for 50%. So, the 5117 per key (as you show), divided by 2, aka 2558 pkp.
So on top of taking severe risks (deep wild + bad loot), you will only get 50% of the the value. Therefore, people should sell their keys as long as the market price stays above 2558.